Market Snapshot 6/8/21

SymbolClose Price$ Change Today% Change Today21′ YTD Change %
IWMIWM232.892.441.0618.79
QQQQQQ336.760.160.057.34
DIADIA346.25-0.34-0.113.23
SPYSPY422.280.090.0212.95
VBRVBR180.761.911.0727.11
GLDGLD177.32-0.55-0.31-0.58
SGOLSGOL18.18-0.07-0.36-0.55
TLTTLT140.450.980.7-10.96
VGSHVGSH61.5300-0.11
VIOGVIOG230.552.431.0717.22
VIOVVIOV191.022.61.3836.03
UUPUUP24.230.030.12-0.04
VIXVIX17.060.643.9-25.01
XLEXLE55.990.480.8647.73
XLFXLF38.12-0.1-0.2629.31
XLVXLV122.15-0.38-0.317.68
XLUXLU64.95-0.56-0.853.59
XLREXLRE45.220.240.5323.69
XLKXLK1400.010.017.68
XLBXLB870.160.1820.18
XLIXLI104.880.270.2618.44
XLPXLP70.8-0.6-0.844.97
XLYXLY172.411.380.817.23
XLCXLC79.37-0.23-0.2917.62
ARKKARKK113.130.50.44-9.13
VXUSVXUS67.27-0.11-0.1611.82
EEMEEM55.44-0.27-0.487.30
VWOVWO54.56-0.23-0.428.88
VEAVEA53.16-0.03-0.0612.60
VGKVGK69.97-0.01-0.0116.15
INDAINDA45.36-0.03-0.0812.78
FXIFXI46.08-0.22-0.48-0.75
DXJDXJ62.32-0.15-0.2414.52
ILFILF32.19-0.22-0.689.68

Market Snapshot from DengSoft, 05/28/21

SymbolClose Price$ Change Today% Change Today21′ YTD Change %
IWMIWM225.5-0.15-0.0715.02
QQQQQQ333.931.050.326.44
DIADIA345.641.040.313.03
SPYSPY420.040.750.1812.35
VBRVBR176.1-0.02-0.0123.83
GLDGLD178.380.670.380.01
TLTTLT138.44-0.21-0.16-12.23
VGSHVGSH61.570.010.02-0.05
VIOGVIOG225.5-0.52-0.2314.65
VIOVVIOV183.99-0.72-0.3931.03
UUPUUP24.220.020.08-0.08
VIXVIX16.760.020.12-26.33
XLEXLE52.210.10.1937.76
XLFXLF37.990.070.1828.87
XLVXLV123.60.480.398.96
XLUXLU65.160.350.543.92
XLREXLRE43.260.290.6718.33
XLKXLK138.40.490.366.45
XLBXLB87.26-0.09-0.120.54
XLIXLI105.120018.71
XLPXLP70.810.150.214.98
XLYXLY172.84-0.24-0.147.50
XLCXLC78.79-0.26-0.3316.76
ARKKARKK112.1-0.18-0.16-9.95
VXUSVXUS66.420.150.2310.41
EEMEEM54.870.350.646.19
VGKVGK68.950.170.2514.46
INDAINDA44.280.030.0710.09
FXIFXI46.24-0.16-0.34-0.41
DXJDXJ61.440.250.4112.90
ILFILF30.630.591.964.36

Market Snapshot from DengSoft, 05/27/21

SymbolClose Price$ Change Today% Change Today21′ YTD Change %
IWMIWM225.652.31.0315.09
QQQQQQ332.88-1.25-0.376.10
DIADIA344.61.330.3912.69
SPYSPY419.290.220.0512.15
VBRVBR176.121.861.0723.85
GLDGLD177.710.070.04-0.36
TLTTLT138.66-0.57-0.41-12.09
VGSHVGSH61.5600-0.06
VIOGVIOG226.021.590.7114.92
VIOVVIOV184.712.41.3231.54
UUPUUP24.2-0.02-0.08-0.17
VIXVIX16.74-0.62-3.57-26.42
XLEXLE52.110.040.0837.49
XLFXLF37.920.431.1528.63
XLVXLV123.12-0.27-0.228.53
XLUXLU64.81-0.44-0.673.37
XLREXLRE42.97-0.05-0.1217.53
XLKXLK137.91-0.73-0.536.07
XLBXLB87.350.690.820.67
XLIXLI105.121.421.3718.71
XLPXLP70.66-0.44-0.624.76
XLYXLY173.080.690.47.65
XLCXLC79.050.30.3817.15
ARKKARKK112.280.850.76-9.81
VXUSVXUS66.270.150.2310.16
EMRGEMRG0.6600#N/A
EEMEEM54.520.010.025.52
VGKVGK68.780.210.3114.18
INDAINDA44.250.180.4110.02
FXIFXI46.4-0.03-0.06-0.06
DXJDXJ61.190.350.5812.44
ILFILF30.040.411.382.35
S & P 500 Map, 05/27/21 Source: finviz
Sector snapshot 05/27/21. Note: utility and cons cyclicals under 50sma. Source: Finviz.

11 Dividend stock picking criteria: is ENIA a good stock?

Value investor often look into those 11 creteria when evluating a dividend stock:

Criterion #1: Credit Rating   Look for stocks with a grade of B+ or higher ( Moody’s www.moodys.com and Standard and Poor’s www.standardandpoors.com)

ENIA passed with its Baa3 rating. See the news below:

New York, December 19, 2019 — Moody’s Investors Service (“Moody’s“) today changed to positive from stable the outlook on Enel Américas S.A. (ENIA). Moody’s also affirmed the ‘Baa3‘ senior unsecured rating of ENIA.Dec 19, 2019

Criterion #2: Cash Flow Assessment

A strong cash flow allows a company to scale its operations and develop innovative products. It provides the means to fund dividend payouts . We look for Net Income growing at 5-10% per year (from Income Statement) – we also prefer stable or growing Operating Cash flow (From Cash Flow Statement).

We may use financial data from morningstar.

ENIA:

Net Income:

201720182019TTM3-Yr Trend
0.711.201.611.61Increase every year

Operating cash flow: ?

Not found in morning star for the last 3 years somehow.

Criterion #3: Cash & Cash Equivalents       

We prefer a company with consistent growth in cash and cash equivalents, as seen from Balance Sheets from financial web sites such as morning star.

ENIA:

201720182019Q4 2019
1.58 2.05 2.04 2.04

Criterion #4: Debt Repayment Capacity

We prefer a company with a debt coverage ratio of at least 3:1.

We can use data from morning star.

debt coverage ratio = Net Income / (Interest Expenses + Other Payments)

Other payments could be principle, sinking, lease payments etc.

Interest Coverage is another ratio similar to debt coverage ratio above. The ratio is calculated by dividing a company’s earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) by the company’s interest expenses for the same period. 

Per WSJ, as of 09/11/2020, ENIA’s Interest Coverage is 3.29. PASSED.

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/ENIA/financials

Criterion #5: Management Performance 

Read company reports as well as analyst reports. Understand its management team. Know the company’s long term growth and expansion plans.    

ENIA: Recent quarterly call transcripts:

https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ENIA/earnings/transcripts

Criterion #6:    Current Dividend Yield

It should be at least 4% or 5%. ENIA: 12.51% (Paid Semiannually)

Criterion #7: Dividend Growth Rate

It should be at least 5%. Check out dividend.com and know the company’s dividend policy. ENIA: 5 years: 4.60%

Criterion #8: Dividend Payout Ratio

It should be less than 60% (check out dividend.com). Otherwise it cannot fund its growth.

Payout ratio of 60%-70% is acceptable only if its dividend yield is compelling (8-10%). Considering selling it if its payout ratio is too high.

ENIA Dividend Payout Ratio:

59.77%, PASSED (Based on Cash Flow, https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/ENIA/dividend/)

But other sites are showing different numbers:

122.43% (FWD PAYOUT RATIO, https://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/utilities/electric-utilities/enia-enersis-americashttps://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/ENIA/dividend/-sa/#tm=3-ticker-best-div-capture&r=ES%3A%3ADividendStock%3A%3AStock%23ENIA–NYSE&f_28=true&only=meta%2Cdata%2Cthead)

114.03% – FAIL ??? (https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/ENIA/dividends/dividend-safety)

Criterion #9: ROE

ROE for the last 3 or more years is 12% or higher.

TTM ROE is at least 15%. Use financial data from morningstar/Key Ratios/Profitability.

During the past 13 years, Enel Americas/ENIA’s highest ROE % was 19.87%. The lowest was 7.46%. And the median was 11.22%. (https://www.gurufocus.com/term/ROE/NYSE:ENIA/ROE–ttm/Enel-Americas)

Enel Americas/ENIA’s return on equity, or ROE TTM, is 11.16% , as of 9/11/2020 (https://www.zacks.com/stock/chart/ENIA/fundamental/return-on-equity-ttm).

Criterion #10: Insider Activity

Buy when insiders are holding or buying more shares. Data can be extracted from:

a. Morningstar/Insiders/Insider Activity

b. Yahoo Finance/Insider Transactions

c. Zacks.com/More Research/Insiders

ENIA: No inside activities for the last 6 months: https://in.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENIA/insider-transactions/

Criterion #11: Intrinsic value

Buy at or below its instrinsic value because your performance is determined not only by dividends but also capital appreciation.

ENIA: $10.66, current price $7.21 USD as of 09/11/2020. PASSED.

as of

12/31/201910.658

5G CIENA stock price: a similar ROE method to calculate its intrinsic value

Use a similar ROE model method described here:

Lesson 21

Use the above mentioned calculator,

Cash Taken Out of Business ($): I entered 0 * This is dividends recieved for 1 year.

Current Book Value ($): 14.57 * We need to know this so we can determine the base value that’s changing.

Average Percent Change in Book Value Per Year (%): 6.67 * This will determine the estimate BV at the end of the next 10 years.

Years: 5 * This will most likely be 10 (if you’re comparing a 10 year federal note).

(Discount Rate) 10 Year Federal Note (%): 0.80 * Look up the ten year treasury note by clicking on this text.


Intrinsic Value ($): 19.33607699236469

I got this number as its intrinsic value:

19.33607699236469

The main difference is, I used 9% as discount rate when calculating NPV, while this calculator uses treasury 10-year note rate (0.80%).

Related blog posts:

  1. How to evaluate a stock? The PE multiple method, CIENA as example
  2. ciena stock price: $44.28 is still overvalued based on my valuations
  3. How to evaluate a stock? The ROE valuation method, CIENA as example
  4. how to evaluate a stock

ciena stock price: $44.28 is still overvalued based on my valuations

In my previous blog posts, I laid out a plan how to evaluate stocks using three methods.

In the blog post on how to evaluate a stock, I listed three methods when valuing a stock:

  1. P/E Multiple method
  2. DCF model
  3. Return on equity valuation method

I later dive deep into PE multiple method, and calculate CIEN’s intrinsic value as 39.7379.

If I believe my intrinsic value of CIEN, I will consider buying it below $39.73 per share. That’s close to its price 37.34 on Mar 27, 2020.
Before the broad stock market drop last week, CIEN was traded at 60.07 when market closed on Wednesday 9/2.
Yahoo Finance site says this stock price now is Near Fair Value.
According to GuruFocusCiena Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF : USD 33.40 (As of 9/5/2020).
Per https://trendshare.org/stocks/CIEN/view:
CIEN Price
(Ciena Corporation stock price per share)
$59.93
[?] CIEN Fair Price
(based on intrinsic value)
$25.84
[?] CIEN Safety Price (based on a variable margin of safety) $15.50

In my latest blog post, I used ROE model and calculated the intrinsic value of CIEN as $23.74639 .

I later said,

The current share price $44.28 of CIEN as of Friday 9/5/2020 is very much overvalued, in my opinion.
By the way, Ciena price target lowered to $37 from $53 at Barclays. Reiterate Underweight.
Barclay’s analyst Tim Long lowered the firms price target on Ciena to $37 from $53 and keeps an Underweight weight rating on the shares. The company’s fiscal Q3 beat on sales, margin, and earnings; but guidance surprised to the downside.

So based on the above research, I think $23.74639 is CIEN’s intrinsic value, and the safe price to buy is around $15.50 for the margin of safety.

The current share price $44.28 of CIEN as of Friday 9/5/2020 is very much overvalued, in my opinion.

Disclaimer: I am just sharing my information, not suggesting you to buy any stocks or investments. Use the info here at your own risk. Please make your own judgements when making investment decisions.